Shield Of Dreams

(2 of 2)

To complicate matters, Senate Republican hawks want to kill the ABM treaty and vow to block ratification of the side agreements--even if it means bringing START to a full stop. That kind of logic--abandoning an accord that eliminates thousands of Russian ICBMs aimed at the U.S. to build a defense against rogue-state missiles that may not exist--mystifies arms-control proponents. Says Spurgeon Keeny Jr., president of the Arms Control Association: "Russia is still the only country that threatens the existence of the U.S."

At this point Putin wants no part of any tinkering with the ABM treaty, fearing that it would open the door to a larger U.S. shield than Clinton says he wants to deploy, which Moscow cannot afford to match and which would threaten its nuclear deterrence. He has warned Clinton that Russia will abandon all arms-control treaties if the U.S. builds a national missile defense.

Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, meanwhile, got a taste last week of Republican hardball. In a one-hour meeting, presumptive G.O.P. presidential nominee George W. Bush says he told Ivanov "why we need to develop a system to protect ourselves." The same day, Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Jesse Helms fired his own ICBM. Fearing the White House was about to make a deal to limit the shield a future President might want to build, Helms announced that his committee will bottle up any arms treaty Clinton negotiates during his final months in office. "Not on my watch!" Helms thundered.

Putin may still decide it is better to take Clinton's offer, and see if Helms makes good on his threat, rather than face possibly tougher terms from a Republican President. It's a throw of the dice--but it's probably no more uncertain than the missile shield Washington wants to build.