The View from the Neighborhood

Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2003
    • Regional Powers
    TURKEY
    Ankara is worried that postwar instability in Iraq would provoke Iraqi Kurds to assert their independence, thereby inciting Turkish Kurds to follow suit. Still, Turkey has strong historical ties with the U.S. and counts on Washington's backing for further IMF assistance. The pro-Islamic government would probably allow the U.S. to use some air bases and would support special forces en route to Iraq but not the transit of large numbers of ground troops.

    IRAN
    Like Turkey, Iran is concerned about postwar restiveness in its Kurdish population. It also dislikes the idea of a postwar pro-American government across its border. But Iran fought a bitter war with Iraq from 1980 to '88 and would gleefully watch Saddam Hussein fall. A defanged Iraq would also make Iran the undisputed kingpin in the gulf. Tehran could conceivably offer the U.S. the right to use Iranian territory to launch search-and-rescue missions, as it did during the war in Afghanistan.


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    ISRAEL
    Israel is likely to be targeted by Iraq in the event of war. Still, the government firmly supports U.S. action against Iraq, whose missiles, potentially tipped with weapons of mass destruction, threaten Israel. Israel has already had scouts inside western Iraq doing prewar reconnaissance. Israeli intelligence forces would work closely with the U.S. during a war.

    EGYPT
    The government frets that a U.S. strike on an Arab country could incite unrest among a public already angry about U.S. support for Israel in its conflict with the Palestinians. But as in other Arab countries, the leaders loathe Saddam. Because the U.S. supplies Egypt with $2 billion in aid a year, it can probably count on overflight rights and the use of the Suez Canal for warships and supply boats.

    SAUDI ARABIA
    Riyadh fears that a war would anger citizens because of the royal family's close ties to the U.S. As first reported on time.com , the Saudis are encouraging a coup against Saddam. If war comes, they may still refuse to permit the launch of U.S. ground troops or Air Force combat missions from their soil, though both were permitted in 1991. But the Saudis are likely to allow U.S. command and control functions, special-operations missions and refueling.

    The Gulf States
    KUWAIT
    While the Kuwaiti government still seethes over Saddam's 1990 invasion and occupation of Kuwait and is worried about a repeat takeover, it says it will not take part in the "war drum-beating" because it is concerned about Iraqi civilian losses in an invasion. Still, it hosts a variety of U.S. military installations and has given the U.S. virtual carte blanche to use its territory.

    BAHRAIN
    The government is sensitive to strong public opinion against a war at a time when the new king is trying to heal civil strife between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims. Yet Bahrain fears Iraq. As host to headquarters of the U.S. naval Fifth Fleet, Bahrain is not expected to actively oppose U.S. action.

    QATAR
    The government is set on building strong ties to the U.S. to protect the tiny emirate from regional powers, especially Iraq and Iran. Thus Qatar is second only to Kuwait in its willingness to let the U.S. use its territory as a launchpad for war. It has agreed to let the U.S. use its al-Udeid facility as a U.S. air base and command and control center.

    U.A.E.
    The United Arab Emirates is concerned that instability in the gulf could slow its rapid economic development. But if war comes, the U.A.E., which already extends military-basing privileges to the U.S. and Britain, is not likely to make a fuss.

    OMAN
    Oman has the usual concerns about public opinion and does not want to appear more pro-American than the rest of the Arab world. But like the U.A.E., it plays host to U.S. and British military facilities and is likely to allow their use in a war with Iraq.

    Other Players in the Area
    JORDAN
    The government is concerned that a U.S. attack on Iraq could cause a revolt among Palestinians living in Jordan. Still, King Abdullah II is not likely to follow the precedent of his father Hussein, who refused to back the war against Saddam in 1991. Privately, officials wish the U.S. would just get on with the war.

    SYRIA
    Damascus is worried about rebellion among its Kurdish population should Iraqi Kurds gain independence after a war. In addition, the government is reluctant to see U.S. influence in the region grow. Although Damascus will not contribute troops to a U.S. alliance against Iraq, as it did in 1991, it is not adamantly opposing a new war.

    YEMEN
    Yemen voted against the war in 1991, and the U.S. cut Yemen's entire $70 million aid program. Yemen has no intention of getting into a spat with Washington this time and will probably allow U.S. ships to refuel at its ports and U.S. planes to fly over its terrain.

    KYRGYZSTAN
    Officially, Kyrgyzstan opposes a war. But it has benefited economically from playing host to American bases recently. The government believes the U.S. presence bolsters its position against radical Islamic opponents. Thus it is likely to further support the U.S.

    UZBEKISTAN
    The government has pledged support for a U.S. war. As a host to U.S. forces engaged in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan has enjoyed warming relations with the U.S.-which help secure its independence from Moscow, and ward off mounting attacks by Islamic radicals.

    Source: GlobalSecurity.org TIME reporting