Israel's New Syrian View

Saturnine by disposition, Syrian President Hafez Assad is not known for saying anything nice about anyone. So it astonished all manner of Middle East pundits last week when he showered praise on the leader of his No. 1 enemy, Israel. Prime Minister-elect Ehud Barak, Assad told an Arabic newspaper, is a "strong and honest man" who had a "real desire for peace." Barak blew a few kisses of his own, crediting Assad with creating a "strong, independent, self-confident" country.

The Middle East is not often a land of such sweet words. The intermedia flirtation between the two leaders has added muscle to rumors that the new Israeli leader will move fast toward a peace agreement with Syria. Last week Barak was still finalizing his government, but he seems intent on starting off his term with a dramatic gesture. Peace with Syria would fit the bill. An expected adjunct agreement with Lebanon would mean an end to the state of war on all of Israel's borders.

Assad has long wanted to reclaim the Golan Heights, the strategic plateau captured by Israel in the Six-Day War of 1967, the loss of which he regards as a personal and national indignity. Outpowered militarily, Assad knows negotiations are his best option. The Syrian leader, 68, suffers multiple ailments, which are thought to include diabetes and heart disease. He is eager to prepare the succession of his son Bashar, 34, a mild-mannered, British-trained ophthalmologist who emerged as heir apparent only after his elder brother Basil died in a 1994 car crash. "Assad has more a sense of urgency now because he would like to strike the deal himself," says Bassma Kodmani-Darwish, an analyst at the Ford Foundation in Cairo. "He would rather go as the man who brought the Golan back."

Barak, a former army chief, imagines his legacy as that of a warrior turned statesman who completed the circle of peace around Israel. The incoming PM promises to proceed toward a final agreement with the Palestinians, but aides say the Syrians are his first priority. With the Palestinians, Barak can expect drawn-out negotiations involving issues like the status of Jerusalem and the future of Jewish settlements in the Palestinian territories. By contrast, a Syrian deal could come quickly--possibly within a year. "With the Syrians, it's cleaner," says an aide close to Barak. "The deal can be his, not something he inherits from previous governments."

Making peace with Syria may be a prerequisite for fulfilling Barak's most concrete campaign pledge: to withdraw within a year Israel's occupation forces from south Lebanon, where they are fighting a costly, no-win war with the Hizballah militia. Barak wants an agreement from Lebanon that its army will disarm Hizballah and protect northern Israel from infiltration and rocket fire. Lebanon won't make that deal without the approval of Syria, which doesn't want to release Israel from its Lebanon quagmire without a reward.

That reward would be the Golan Heights. Damascus maintains that before Israel severed peace talks in 1996 amid a wave of terrorist attacks there, its negotiators had agreed in principle to return the entire plateau. Assad insists on making that the starting point for future talks, and Barak leaves open the possibility of a complete handover. Still, Israel's conditions for withdrawal remain difficult for Syria to swallow: security arrangements such as early-warning systems on the Golan; demilitarized zones on and around the plateau; a full normalization of ties rather than a mere cessation of belligerence. If the two sides can come to terms, Barak believes a deal between them will stick. "It's not like with the Palestinians, where there's so much bad blood between the sides that compliance is an open question," says the Barak aide. "The Syrians are tough enemies, but they are credible and trustworthy." Barak, for one, seems willing to bet his political future on that belief.