The Coming Job Boom

At a time when the job market still seems bleak, the outlook for Alex and Cindi Ignatovsky, both 33, could not be much brighter. After trying out a number of different careers, the Aptos, Calif., couple have recently discovered their true callings. Alex, who had been a paralegal and had also done a brief stint as an insurance salesman, has just started working as a juvenile-probation officer, helping kids wend their way through the crowded criminal-justice system. Cindi, who previously was an editor and a graphic designer, is now busy finishing up an intensive, multiyear program to become an acupuncturist. In her view, as she puts it, "there's as much opportunity as I make of it."

She's right, about both her and her husband's prospects--but not just because they're passionate and adept at what they do. They have also, as it turns out, each chosen fields--in his case, law enforcement and social services, in hers, health care--that are feeling the first effects of the coming job boom. That's right. Even as thousands of Americans are still getting pink slips, powerful help is on the way. And it has more to do with demographics than economics. The oldest members of the huge baby-boom generation are now 56, and as they start retiring, job candidates with the right skills will be in hot demand. As Mitch Potter of human-resources consultant William M. Mercer says, "The dotcom bubble created a false talent crunch. The real one is coming."

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In certain industries, especially those in which burnout and early retirement are common and demand for services is rising, the crunch has already arrived. As the population ages, hospitals can't find enough nurses or medical technicians. Drugstores are competing to hire pharmacists, bidding some beginners' salaries above $75,000. School districts and universities will need 2.2 million more teachers over the next decade, not to mention administrators and librarians, and are already avidly recruiting. Homeowners can't get their calls returned by skilled contractors, electricians or plumbers. Corporations are scooping up accountants and engineers. For job seekers who have the right skills or are willing to learn them, there are real opportunities in government, construction and technology.

To millions of laid-off workers still pounding the pavement, of course, this might seem like wishful thinking. While the economy grew a whopping 5.8% in the first quarter of 2002, the job market usually lags by at least a few months. To land a job, record numbers of workers are taking pay cuts or switching industries, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas; many others are starting their own small businesses. But as hard as it may be to believe, it should not be too long before employees are in the driver's seat. A wave of retirements whose full effect is only starting to be felt will soon ripple through the entire economy. And the savviest workers and employers are already preparing for it.

Though the average retirement age is creeping up--and a growing share of Americans, by choice or necessity, are planning to work at least part time well past 65--demographers say there still will not be enough qualified members of the next generation to pick up the slack. So with 76 million baby boomers heading toward retirement over the next three decades and only 46 million Gen Xers waiting in the wings, corporate America is facing a potentially mammoth talent crunch. Certainly, labor-saving technology and immigration may help fill the breach. Still, by 2010 there may be a shortage of 4 million to 6 million workers.

Not enough Americans are trained for these jobs. They lack everything from computer literacy and leadership to critical thinking and communication skills. The recent slump, though, may be helping narrow the skills gap in a surprising way. Although generous social-welfare systems in industrialized countries such as Germany and Britain make it easy for the laid off to wait around for a factory to reopen, Americans tend to take the initiative during a downturn, getting educated or trained for a better job and in the process adding to the country's stock of human capital. Applications to graduate programs in everything from law and business to education and engineering are up from last year by 30%-100%. That approach should pay off. Although 1.9 million Americans with a high school diploma or less got the ax from September 2000 to October 2001--a time when the economy was slumping--1.2 million people with college or vocational degrees were hired, according to the Employment Policy Foundation.

It isn't just the younger generation that's going back to school, either. Bruce LeBel, 59, a veteran aircraft mechanic who lost his job after Sept. 11, is learning how to service the computer networks that help run more and more factories and power plants. Many of his former colleagues "are afraid to try anything different. They want to stay with a dead horse," he says. "But the only thing that can save me is having a skill that's in demand." To help other job hunters follow LeBel's example, here's a guide to the best job opportunities today--and tomorrow.