The Year We Reckon With Iran

Can Chuck Hagel help fix Obama's biggest problem--before it's too late?

By Fareed Zakaria Monday, Jan. 21, 2013
    • Illustration by Oliver Munday for TIME

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    There are many obstacles to a solution. Many Iranian officials at the highest levels have profited from sanctions. Their businesses flourish without competition in this closed atmosphere, so they don't have much incentive to make a deal. But there are others who do, and as the pressures build and the costs grow, these voices are being heard. Marashi notes that "numerous [Western, Chinese and Russian] officials have acknowledged that the Iranians focused their bottom line on uranium enrichment at the 3.5% level and sanctions relief. Iran's enrichment of uranium to the 20% level; its corresponding stockpile; and its underground Fordow nuclear facility all are fair game for compromise--but for the right price." A deal along these lines--no enrichment above 3.5%, intrusive inspections, existing stockpiles under that inspection regimen--makes sense, but Washington will have to be creative in offering Iran an incentive to take it.

    There are also real obstacles to a negotiated deal in Washington, and that is where Hagel could make a difference. He could add a voice within the Administration arguing in favor of a deal that offers benefits to Tehran for verifiable proof that it can't get the Bomb. Otherwise, 2013 will be the year that we accepted a nuclear Iran or went to war.

    TO READ MORE BY FAREED ZAKARIA, GO TO time.com/zakaria

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