Mitt Romney's Mixed Forecast: Does Paul Ryan's Appointment Help Him or President Obama?

Christopher Morris / VII for TIME

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan wrapped his first solo tour as Mitt Romney's running mate at the famous retirement community of The Villages, in Florida, August 2012

To win a campaign, you have to make the weather. It is one of my golden rules. But whereas the real weather is measurable to the last degree of heat or the last drop of rainfall, the political weather is harder to gauge. Polls can help, but ultimately, it is all about a candidate's judgment calls.

Right now, Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney is making the weather with his choice of the young Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan as his running mate. Ryan's backstory, including the discovery of his father's body, working shifts at McDonald's and a...

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