As Palestinians Push for Statehood, Israel Finds Itself Isolated

Khalil Hamra / AP
Angry neighbors Protesters attack Israel's embassy in Cairo, forcing diplomats to flee

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That would be no consolation to Israel, however, because it would very likely give Palestine access to the International Criminal Court. There, it could bring charges against Israel for building settlements on occupied territory and allegedly driving out Palestinians it would argue that this amounts to a war crime. That changes things. Even if Abbas promises (as a condition of E.U. support) not to rush to the Hague, the mere fact that he could do so hands Palestinians new leverage in peace talks.

Not that the Palestinians are anywhere near ready for talks. For negotiations with Israel to have real meaning, Abbas' Fatah party must first reconcile with Hamas, uniting the West Bank and Gaza into one entity after new elections promised in May. But intra-Palestinian parleys have stalled: the two parties can't even agree on the time of day. Literally. In Gaza City, a university associated with Fatah keeps daylight time, while the Hamas school next door sets its clock with Egypt, an hour behind. "We are one people," wails Rewaa Fanouna, 21. "We ought to be united at least on the time!"

Polls show that most Palestinians support the U.N. bid but don't necessarily understand what it might bring them. That's not surprising, given the muddy signals from their leaders on a legalistic matter. As late as Sept. 14, when this magazine printed, it was not clear whether Abbas would go the Security Council route or the General Assembly route. In any event, what Palestinians want most, after 44 years of Israeli occupation, is something the U.N. bid cannot deliver: immediate change on the ground.

Israel, meanwhile, seems unperturbed by the loss of so many friends. Netanyahu seemed willing to sour relations with the White House because he was confident it would play well back home: his selective quotation of Obama's call for a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders (leaving out the crucial qualifier "land swaps") was a hit with the Israeli public.

Isolation carries a price, however. When Israel's embassy in Cairo was besieged Sept. 9 by a mob of Egyptians protesting their own transitional military rulers and Israel's killing of five Egyptian police officers after a terrorist attack the previous month, Netanyahu was unable to reach the top Egyptian general. In the end, he had to phone Obama to ask him to intervene.

That may have been the most positive exchange between the two in months. But it's not clear if Obama can head the Palestinians off at the pass in New York City. Averting a U.N. vote would depend on a credible promise of progress in peace talks, but Netanyahu has continued to sanction the steady expansion of the settlements on the West Bank. The White House has repeatedly asked him to freeze the construction of settlements on occupied land, and the Palestinians say they won't sit down to talks while the building continues. "From what we see, the construction is speeding even in settlements deeper in the West Bank," says Hagit Ofran of Peace Now, an Israeli group that monitors settlement construction. "So it doesn't seem, at least on the ground, the government is doing anything in favor of peace." Israel too has demands, among them Palestinian recognition of its status as a Jewish state. In this and other matters, Abbas is as unyielding as Netanyahu.

There's still time, of course. There's just the chance that two client states can be coaxed to accommodate their Washington sponsor. But it's September: the days are growing shorter.