Soviet Union: A Slippery Slope

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Gorbachev now has more legal power in his hands than any of his communist predecessors, including the despot Joseph Stalin. Vitali Korotich, editor of the liberal weekly Ogonyok dryly observed that Gorbachev was a "British Queen and an American President rolled into one." Korotich was concerned, however, about so much power being voted "to the President, not personally to Gorbachev." That could be dangerous if he is replaced.

All this restructuring is not about perestroika but something more basic: the continued existence of the Soviet Union within its present boundaries. Before his heart attack, Ryzhkov defined the crisis: "Is the government short of powers now? No, the problem is that the republics are ignoring its resolutions. If the situation does not change, no presidential power will save us." Gorbachev's drift to the right, his increasing dependence on the old communists he once spurned and on the men in uniform, testifies to his determination to keep the union whole and the rebellious republics inside it.

At the center of that struggle is the draft treaty of union defining new power-sharing arrangements between the federal government in Moscow and the 15 member republics. The treaty was approved last week by a vote of 1,605 to 54, which illustrates how far removed the Congress of People's Deputies is from the attitudes in the republics, where it must be ratified.

Out in the country the mood is very different. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia and Georgia have announced that they will not accept the treaty in any form. Its political and economic provisions have drawn criticism from most other republics as well. Lithuania and Estonia have also said they will not participate in the newly created Federation Council.

With KGB chief Kryuchkov railing against ethnic violence and "subversive" interventions from abroad, Gorbachev has taken the first steps toward a crackdown on separatist forces in the republics. He issued a decree ordering the nationalist leadership in Moldavia to get back in line and halt a small- scale civil war among Romanian-speaking Moldavians, Russians and Turkic minorities. Otherwise, he warned, "necessary steps will be taken" a signal that he may impose presidential rule.

The separatist challenge, however, is far greater in the huge Russian republic, which contains half the Soviet Union's people, 75% of its land and most of its natural resources. Just as the federal parliament was closing its 10-day session, the Russian legislature voted to cut its contribution to the national budget 83%, from 142.4 billion rubles ($80 billion at the official exchange rate) to 23.4 billion ($13 billion).

Such an enormous loss of funds by the central government would affect all areas of national life, Gorbachev declared, not just the military. "It would mean," he said, "the collapse not only of the economy but of the country itself." To buttress the President's position, the federal parliament resolved that Moscow and all the republics should meet quickly to frame temporary economic agreements for 1991. The resolution would probably have no effect because, as Gorbachev said, "the Russian comrades have not understood they must change their positions." If things go on this way, he said, "we will lose two or three months and all the people will be out in the streets."

Unfazed, the Russian legislature convened less than a mile from the Kremlin and widened the political gap by legalizing private ownership of all kinds of businesses, a step Gorbachev has been reluctant to take. Even this measure was not enough for some Russian radicals. The republic's Finance Minister, Boris Fyodorov, 32, resigned, charging that other important decisions like price reform are "bogged down."

Although the U.S. and other Western governments continue to wish Gorbachev well in public, their intelligence analysts have turned gloomy. They see him on the verge of becoming the dictator Shevardnadze predicted. "It's hard to foresee anything but a crackdown," says a State Department expert in Washington, predicting nationwide martial law in the Soviet Union. "Gorbachev will survive," says Madeleine Albright, president of the Center for National Policy, a Washington think tank. "But we won't like him."

What do the experts believe produced this transformation in Gorbachev the revolutionary? First, he is unable to find piecemeal economic reforms that work because there aren't any and he is unwilling to go all the way to a free-market economy. The result is economic breakdown. Second, he has been powerless to halt ethnic unrest and nationalist moves toward independence. He senses that the country is falling apart, but has no sympathy for separatist sentiment. Third, he has been abandoned by the liberals who at first supported his reforms and goaded him to faster action. Most of the prominent democrats of yesteryear are now running cities and republics and declaring their sovereignty, fighting a "war of laws" with the central government.

Gorbachev is left with no power base except for the Marxist ideologues and militarists the apparatchiks of the Communist Party, the KGB and the army. He is no longer advancing a planned reform. His program seems to consist of no more than his determination to keep himself in power and the union together, whatever the price.

GORBACHEV'S PARLIAMENTARY BOX SCORE

HE WON:
His unpopular choice as Vice President
Direct control of the Cabinet of Ministers
Chairmanship of two new policy-planning committees
Approval of a draft treaty of union

HE LOST:
Face, when his vice-presidential nominee failed on the first ballot
His request for an inspectorate to enforce Moscow's orders
Billions of rubles, when the Russian republic slashed its budget contribution
Support from five republics that vow not to ratify the treaty of union

Time.com

Soviet Union: A Slippery Slope

Buffeted on all sides, Gorbachev consolidates his powers to save the union even if it means becoming the dictator Shevardnadze warned about