Tick, Tick, Tick

As the U.N. deadline for Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait nears, George Bush seeks to convince Saddam Hussein that his time is running out

By Richard Lacayo Monday, Jan. 07, 1991

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    Even within the Administration, there was concern that Washington was sending a muddled message. "Looking at the way things have gone," mused a State Department official, "Saddam must be saying to himself, 'Maybe I can ride this out.' " In London aides to Prime Minister John Major, just back from an official visit to Washington, reported that their boss had found Bush and Baker deeply pessimistic. "They thought Saddam was not convinced that the allies were ready to go to war," said a senior adviser to Major. "They saw little chance of U.S.-Iraqi talks getting under way before the U.N. deadline."

    Saddam began the week by summoning to Baghdad 20 of his ambassadors, many to nations that have contributed troops to the U.S.-led alliance. He sent them back to their posts carrying the message that he was ready for "serious and constructive dialogue" to avert war. But whatever optimism those words might have engendered was quickly undercut by Saddam's reiterated demand that any diplomatic settlement would have to link an Iraqi pullout from Kuwait with an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

    Though the U.S. has flatly rejected such a linkage, Saddam's continuing effort to tie a resolution of the crisis to other intractable regional disputes is just one of the potential ploys that give American policymakers sleepless nights. They are concerned that Baghdad will try to split the alliance by proposing to withdraw only in return for a promise to call a prompt international conference on the Arab-Israeli dispute. Though the governments of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria have shown no interest in such ideas so far, they could be under pressure from their own people if Saddam chose to press the point. But the U.S. is not likely to accept the idea under those conditions.

    Then there is what State Department officials call "the nightmare scenario" in which Saddam would withdraw partly from Kuwait, retaining the Warbah and Bubiyan islands, which control Iraq's access to the gulf, as well as the sliver of northern Kuwait that includes the Rumaila oil field. President Bush has made a pre-emptive strike against that possibility by insisting — with backing from the other 14 members of the U.N. Security Council — that only a complete withdrawal would be acceptable.

    Nonetheless, a partial pullout would present the White House with a thorny political dilemma. Persuading an increasingly restive Congress — not to mention American allies — to fight for the liberation of Kuwait is one thing. But to fight for the liberation of the Warbah and Bubiyan islands? U.S. officials reluctantly conclude that such a move by Saddam would defang the coalition, leaving Bush with no choice but to hope that sanctions would eventually force Iraq into a complete pullback.

    Or Saddam could choose war, betting that his dug-in forces in Kuwait and southern Iraq could inflict so many U.S casualties that the American public would lose its stomach for the battle. Least likely of all is that he will opt to comply fully with the U.N.'s demands and withdraw entirely from Kuwait. The French newspaper Le Figaro reported last week that Iraqi secret-service agents have been going door to door in Baghdad urging people to assemble next week for a "spontaneous" rally in favor of withdrawing from Kuwait. If true, the report would suggest that Saddam is trying to arrange a face-saving way to back down. Asked to comment on Le Figaro 's story, the Deputy Speaker of Iraq's parliament gave a tantalizing reply: "We entered Kuwait because the people demanded it. In Iraq it is the people who decide."

    Welcome as such a step would be, most U.S. policy experts are convinced no such move is forthcoming. They believe that Saddam has concluded he can drag out the fighting long enough to force a diplomatic solution that leaves him in power in Baghdad and with a plausible claim to partial victory. If so, they say, he still does not understand the awesome power of the military forces arrayed against him. "The U.S. attack will be something entirely outside Saddam's realm of experience," says former Army Chief of Staff General John Wickham. "It's not clear he can even imagine what will happen." With the clock ticking, many people hoped the Iraqi leader would still show the sense not to put Bush's determination to the ultimate test.

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