Sarkozy Under Pressure as French Strikes Continue

Philippe Desmazes / AFP / Getty Images
Fight over the future High school students protesting in Lyon shield themselves from tear gas

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Sarkozy vs. the People

How did it come to this? In large part, the unrest in France is linked to Sarkozy's unpopularity. Even before opposition to his plan mushroomed, his approval rating had fallen to 26% in late September, a decline fueled by the defection of traditionally conservative voters turned off by his political swagger, disinclination to compromise and habit of imposing his decisions on anyone who disagrees with him. Sarkozy decided to turn pension reform into a "do-or-die struggle by forcing it on his conservative majority and a recession-weary public that would have accepted it at a later time," says political analyst Jean-Marc Lech, a co-president of the Ipsos polling agency. "To a very large degree, the current crisis is less about pensions than it is about him."

That's a view heard often. The President has found himself increasingly isolated in recent months, even on the right. "A growing number of people feel Sarkozy simply doesn't listen to or care about them or what they have to say including within his own Cabinet and parliamentary majority," says Marie-Eve Malouines, author of the recent book Nicolas Sarkozy: The Power and the Fear.

It wasn't always this way. After 12 years of stasis under Jacques Chirac, Sarkozy won a convincing victory in the 2007 presidential election, energizing voters across the political divide with a call for "rupture" from France's complacent and expensive habits. Sarkozy promised to shrink the public sector and revive private industry part of an effort to restore what he said was the diminished value of work and to rid French society of its suspicion of and disdain for money and success.

The new President also proved a breath of fresh air on the international scene. He repaired Franco-American ties damaged by the Iraq war, helped Syria shed its role as an international pariah and got tough on Iran's nuclear-development program. When the Great Recession hit Europe, Sarkozy spearheaded coordinated reaction to prevent the continent's markets from collapsing. Apart from Germany, there is no leading industrial nation that has weathered the economic storm so successfully.

So why is he so unpopular? Sarkozy's fondness of luxury and evident pride in having rich and famous friends has repelled many French voters, including traditionalist conservatives, as vulgar. In 2009 he sparked allegations of nepotism when he tried to help his 21-year-old son become head of the public agency responsible for the multibillion-euro La Défense business park.

Most recently, Sarkozy handicapped his pension revision by refusing to replace the controversial minister piloting the reform measure: the minister was hounded by allegations of conflict of interest and party-financing violations arising from a scandal rocking the heirs to the L'Oréal fortune. The President's obstinacy on that and other matters has sparked the kind of resentment now filling protesters' ranks. "Sarkozy has become the single most divisive force within French society and its political system," says Lech. "When he strikes out at the left, that consolidates its ranks and sends more dismayed centrists flocking to it. When he browbeats his own majority to fall into line and back him, he only increases resentment there. His best bet for now is to just lie low, which is the opposite of what he's doing."

Can the President recover? There are still 18 months to go before the next presidential election an eternity in politics. As France continues to recover from the recession, Sarkozy will be able to take credit for improved economic prospects. And given that he has solid majorities in the National Assembly and Senate, his pension reform seems likely to be passed into law soon, regardless of the mood on the streets.

There is a chance, then, that by 2012, today's demonstrations may join the many others in France's modern history as a curiosity. True, polls indicate that were the election held today, Sarkozy would lose to either Socialist Party leader Marine Aubry or Dominique Strauss-Kahn, now head of the International Monetary Fund and once a leading Socialist minister. On the right, he might be challenged by his archenemy, Dominique de Villepin, Prime Minister under Chirac. But it isn't in Sarkozy's makeup to back down. "His conception of politics is that each confrontation is an all-out battle, so he has little choice but fight to the end," says Malouines, who predicts Sarkozy will run for re-election even if he looks sure to lose. "He's the best candidate the right has and the incumbent President. His sense of honor will force him to run even if things look bad, and his sense of pride will convince him to prove everyone wrong by winning despite all predictions."

All of which implies that, despite the drama in the streets, the current clash over his pension revision will be only one of many factors affecting Sarkozy's re-election bid. The strikes look bad, and they could get worse (the fact that they usually don't is no guarantee of perpetual peace). On the other hand, for all the things that the French say they don't like about him today, Sarkozy has shown himself to be a formidable political talent. It's way too early to write him off.