Texas Showdown

In this race, an unlikely outsider has the inside track

By Hilary Hylton/Austin Monday, Oct. 18, 2010
    • Jason Fulford for TIME

    At Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, on October 3rd, classmates remember Tyler Clementi.

    On a recent Saturday morning in September, Texas Governor Rick Perry welcomed to Austin attendees of the RedState Gathering, an annual event that brings together leading conservative bloggers and like-minded political candidates, and reminded them why they had come. "We are walking into a struggle to protect our citizens from a dismal future of centralized government, rationed opportunity and limited freedom," Perry warned.

    That Perry, 60, has spent 10 years as governor of Texas and is now seeking an unprecedented third full term in no way undercut the logic of his defiant, angry message. Though a long-serving incumbent in an anti-incumbent year, Perry has so perfected the role of permanent outsider that the show evinces no sign of getting stale.

    A year ago, Texas Democrats expected that Perry would have disappeared like so much west Texas tumbleweed by now. Many assumed that Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison would dispatch Perry in the GOP primary and it would then fall to Bill White, 56, the popular former Houston mayor, to lead Lone Star Democrats back to the governor's office after years in the wilderness. It hasn't worked out that way. Perry knocked Hutchison off easily, and though White is within striking distance of Perry, he's had trouble closing the gap in polls. White appeared to have it all--he's an energy-company executive, fluent in Spanish and a native of San Antonio--but he's facing a stronger-than-normal anti-Democratic tide in a state where the normal anti-Democratic tide can be formidable.

    The soft-spoken White talks about issues like transportation and education, while Perry preaches border security and rails against Washington spending. It doesn't hurt Perry that almost two-thirds of Texans disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance, which may explain why White was nowhere to be seen when Obama passed through in August. White criticized Perry for refusing to debate, but Perry coolly played a trump card in reply: "It's not about this good ole fightin' Texas Aggie being afraid to [debate] that Harvard boy."

    That's a reminder that when it comes to the swagger factor, Perry has the clear edge, notes Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University: "Rick Perry--he walks into a room with his head high, his chest out. Marlboro Man. You can tell he's loving it." White will have to carry his base in Houston, boost Hispanic turnout along the border and win a good slice of independents to beat Perry. "Turnout, turnout, turnout," says Lydia Camarillo of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project. "That's the key."

    THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS

    NAME: Rick Perry

    AGE: 60

    ABOUT: Perry is seeking a third full term as governor in an anti-incumbent year

    NAME: Bill White

    AGE: 56

    ABOUT: The former Houston mayor was a top energy official under Bill Clinton