Why Murkowski Can Win: Follow the Money

By Jay Newton-Small Thursday, Sept. 30, 2010
    • Astrid Riecken / Getty Images

    Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) attends a Interior, Environment and Related Agencies Subcommittee hearing on Minerals Management Service reorganization June 23, 2010 in Washington, DC.

    No Senate candidate has won a write-in bid since South Carolina's Strom Thurmond in 1954, but don't count Alaska's Lisa Murkowski out just yet. She hails from a state known for voting with its wallet, and that wallet has been thin of late.

    For every dollar Alaskans pay in federal taxes, they get back $1.82 from Washington, making it the most heavily subsidized state in the union. Enter Joe Miller, the Tea Party darling and small-government advocate who beat Murkowski in the GOP primary. Miller believes that Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits are unconstitutional. He wants to abolish the Department of Education and opposes earmarks, unlike Murkowski. "The continued government growth, the continued fiscal insanity, is going to result in this country, I think, falling from its leadership role in the international scene," Miller told TIME.

    Miller's candidacy has provoked panic in the state and local employees' unions, including the firefighter, police and teachers' associations, and all of Alaska's native tribes. "I think Alaskans understand the importance of [Murkowski's] presence in Washington," says Barb Angaiak, president of Alaska's National Education Association chapter.

    A new TIME–CNN–Opinion Research poll found Murkowski pulling in 36% of likely voters, compared with 38% for Miller — a statistical tie. Her aides say online donations and volunteer numbers are up as well. She will need all that and more to make sure voters know how to spell M-U-R-K-O-W-S-K-I by Nov. 2.