Flying Low

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In the meantime, the agency is about to impose a new requirement that airlines do so-called positive bag matches, which are already common overseas. That means airlines will have to match every bag on a flight with a passenger, to ensure that no one can place a bag with a bomb on a plane and then fail to board it. The FAA move will be over the objection of U.S. airlines, which have argued that such bag matching is impractical in a system that handles 1.4 billion bags a year, and of dubious value in an age of suicide bombers.

The AAA says travelers are driving short trips they might have flown in the past. Demand for charter planes is up as much as 27% since Sept. 11. And Southern Californians have been slipping over the border to Tijuana, of all places, in search of airline safety. That city's Rodriguez International Airport, which has added more armed guards in its terminals and randomly checks luggage of 1 of every 5 passengers, reports that traffic is up 19% since Sept. 11, with nervous Americans making up much of the increase.

How Big a Hassle Am I Going to Face At the Airport?
Inconvenience and delays on the ground are a near certainty. At some airports, even with the volume of travelers down, long lines at security checkpoints and ticket counters can easily mean spending three hours between getting out at the curb and getting on a plane. The airlines are trying to speed things up. Northwest announced last week that it had streamlined boarding procedures, and it is now advising travelers to arrive 90 minutes before their flights, rather than the two hours it had been recommending.

As a longer-term solution, the travel industry last week proposed creating a national travel ID. The ID, based on "smart card" technology, would allow anyone who voluntarily submitted to an advance background check to move through security more quickly, while agents spent more time on passengers who had not been prescreened. But late last week the White House shot down the idea, with little explanation.

Another common complaint: as airlines jigger their reduced schedules, passengers are being moved to flights hours earlier or later than the one they booked. The airlines have some discretion, but it's not unlimited. After Sept. 11, the Department of Transportation sent around an advisory telling carriers to offer refunds in cases of "significant change in scheduled departure or arrival time."

Will Anything Be Different Once We Get in the Air?
You probably won't notice that your plane is no longer passing within 11.5 miles of a nuclear reactor. But other changes will make flying a lot more like bus travel. Some airlines, like American and United, have cut costs by yanking in-flight magazines and meals. But not all are doing so. "That's taking the cheese off the pizza," says Continental CEO Gordon Bethune. "Glad they're doing it, but we're not going to."

Are There Still Cheap Fares Available for the Holidays?
The stretch between Thanksgiving and Christmas is one of the most traveled times of year, and the airlines naturally are emphasizing the attractions of turkey and tearful embraces. But they have also been hauling out a grab bag of inducements, from double frequent-flyer miles to rock-bottom vacation packages. Just after Sept. 11, there were remarkable fares to be had, notably Southwest's money-losing one-way tickets to virtually anywhere in its 58-city network for $34 to $89. "We violated every rule of yield management to get people back," Southwest CEO James Parker told TIME last week.

The price cuts are not as steep now, but there are still plenty of bargains. Late last month US Airways announced round-trip fares as low as $183 from its Charlotte hub to New York City. United, American and Continental have all slashed business fares from 25% to 50% since Sept. 11.

Will My Airline Be Around When It's Time to Fly?
That depends on the airline--and how far in advance you've booked. Southwest is now second only to Delta in domestic passengers and, with a $13 billion market cap, is worth more than all the other major airlines combined. In the long run, industry analysts say, every airline will need to mimic no-frills flyers like Southwest and JetBlue to remain competitive.

For now, the industry is being helped by the $15 billion government bailout. But most of the $5 billion in grants has been spent, with little to show for it but a postponed day of reckoning. There's an additional $10 billion available in loans, but at the rate most airlines are losing money, that cash will probably go fast.

That may not be such a bad thing. "Government aid inherently works contrary to the natural Darwinian process of the marketplace," says UBS Warburg analyst Samuel Buttrick. Bankruptcy, he argues, can make it easier for failing industries to get out of untenable labor contracts--airlines' labor costs have soared 79% in the past decade--and unfavorable contracts with suppliers. And inefficient airlines need to shed customers so that efficient ones can thrive.