A Salesman On The Road

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Candidate Bush chastised Bill Clinton for turning Russian-American relations into a game of personal chemistry. That was forgotten when Bush first met Putin last month and gushed that he had looked into the former KGB man's eyes "to get a sense of his soul." Bush believes his charm and persuasiveness will move his pal Putin to let the U.S. do what it wants. As an adviser puts it, the Administration is going to "work it and work it and work it and work it" until Putin gives way.

But the Russian leader has been saying no, no, no. He probably cares less about the sanctity of the ABM treaty than the harm its demise might do to Russia's standing in the world and his image at home. Analysts in most capitals, including Moscow, think he's bargaining for everything he can get before he says O.K. He needs the veneer of equal dialogue, and the sweeteners could be costly--no NATO expansion; keeping quiet as Russia continues economic ties to Iraq and Iran.

Meanwhile, Putin continues to mix his signals. He has laid out a modest framework for "modernizing" ABM, and ladled on some soft soap before setting off for Genoa last week, calling Dubya "a little bit sentimental." But Putin has also demonstrated why he won't be easy to roll. Besides inking the treaty with China, he has repeatedly warned that Russia will cram more warheads atop its missiles if Bush abandons the ABM treaty.

Bush's aides say they're confident Putin will eventually do a deal. Their aim now is to hurry him up. The rapid timetable is governed by political arithmetic: to lock in missile defense before Bush's first term ends. In fact, the President can just bulldoze ahead. Russia can cooperate and get something or sulk and get nothing. European objections don't count if Russia concedes. The Democrat-led Senate can't stop Bush from breaking the ABM treaty, though it can tighten the purse strings.

Yet Daschle's warning might give Bush pause. Among friends and foes alike, the perception is taking hold that Bush's America intends to go its own way. "Nobody's putting ABM on a pedestal," says Jacques Beltran, a researcher at the French Institute for International Relations. "But they're hostile to the U.S. pulling out of it unilaterally. This is all about style." To create a lasting new world order, transactions between the sole superpower and the rest of the globe need the appearance of give and take, not diktat.