A Campaign Role Reversal

The Democratic Presidential race is orderly. The G.O.P. race is volatile. Which party will benefit?

Christopher Morris / VII for TIME

The presidential podium is set up at George W. Bush's ranch in Crawford, Texas.

You keep hearing about the Presidential race, "It's so early, it's so early." But it isn't. If you assume the 2008 campaign began on Election Day 2006, then we're already halfway to the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, currently scheduled for mid-January 2008. Here's what we've learned so far: In both parties, there's a top two—Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democrats, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain for the Republicans. There's a third-place candidate on the edge of the first tier—John Edwards and Mitt Romney. There's a big jump down to the next tier of declared...

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