Cruising to Disaster

Fairy tales can hurt you only if you believe them. That's why the widespread conviction right now that the "Goldilocks economy" will prevail in 2007 is so worrying. Stock markets around the world have been rallying strongly because key global economic fundamentals are said to be not too hot, not too cold, but just right. Growth is solid, inflation is relatively low, energy prices are easing, interest rates are benign, and consumer spending is holding up, most importantly in the U.S. The assumption that investors seem to be relying on to justify the high prices they are paying for stocks is...