A Series of Bad Signals

Signs of a slowdown appear, but a recession is still unlikely this year

In its youth, the recovery from the last recession was a lusty prodigy that grew faster than any other upturn in the past three decades. The rebound, which started in November 1982, is now in its 30th month. Post- World War II recoveries have typically lasted just 45 months, and this one is beginning to show its age.

"There is always some disappointment at this stage of an economic expansion," says Edward Yardeni, chief economist for the Wall Street firm of Prudential-Bache. "It is typical for an economy in the third year of an expansion to start to slow down."


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