Six days before U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's visit to Beijing last Sunday, China's National People's Congress adopted an antisecession law aimed at Taiwan. The legislation, which authorizes a military attack to prevent the island from seeking independence, has heightened regional tensions and raised a question diplomats would rather not confront: Would China really pull the trigger?
That may depend upon how good Beijing thinks its chances are of winning a military confrontation that could pit China against the U.S. On paper, the mainland's 2.5 million-member People's Liberation Army (P.L.A.), the largest force in the world, holds...
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