Dubya Talks The Talk

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The resulting bad air could choke the serious business between both sides. Washington says it still wants a cooperative, productive relationship, but Moscow bristles at the insults. The U.S. wants Russia to control its deteriorating nuclear arsenal and continue dismantling warheads, but Bush's new budget cuts back 10% on the aid Washington gives Moscow to comply. The U.S. says Bush is merely demonstrating a "certain clarity and a certain decisiveness," but the focus on differences may make it harder to bridge them. And Bush aides say that while he isn't trying to trash the relationship, he does intend to strip Russia of the special status it enjoyed under Clinton, and treat it just like any other country.

CHINA. Beijing has been adopting soft-line tactics toward Washington and seems shocked to discover that this Bush is no comfy replica of the elder one. George W. has plenty of advisers who see China as the looming enemy, a military rival bent on asserting its dominance over the Pacific. Bush is sounding a hard note on human rights and has resolved to go ahead with a Pacific missile shield that Beijing opposes. But at the same time he is being tugged hard in the opposite direction by trade-minded business interests that want to preserve engagement and cooperation.

Which way will Bush lean? The test is fast approaching. In April he is scheduled to decide which new weapons to sell to Taiwan. The sales are ticklish every year, but never more so than now, when a new Administration wants to underscore its distance from China and an independence-minded Taiwan is bidding for the Navy's most advanced antimissile radar system.

China adamantly opposes letting Taiwan buy four guided-missile destroyers equipped with Aegis radar that can sound an alarm the millisecond a Chinese M-9 missile is fired from the mainland, 100 miles away. Beijing fears the new systems would give the island a military edge, whereas Taiwan says the Aegis would merely even the score against the 300 mainland missiles aimed at it. Beijing is also worried that the radar could eventually allow Taiwan to link up with Washington's regional defense shield. "Of all the arms the U.S. could sell, Aegis is the worst," says China's chief arms negotiator, Sha Zukang. "We hate this idea."

Last week Bush said no decision has been made on the Aegis. The rumor mongers have him leaning in favor of the deal, and he essentially told Qian the U.S. has the right to sell Taiwan any arms it likes. At the same time, he sought to reassure Qian: "I am going to look you in the eye and tell you that we can have good relations with China. Nothing we do is a threat to you, and I want you to tell that to your leadership." Bush said he was conveying an approach that would be "firm" but "respectful."

If Bush approves the sale, Beijing's anger could undermine human rights and nonproliferation efforts. But some say the tough talk could be necessary for a compromise. Bush could say yes but put off the actual sale for a year while China would be asked to cut back its military spending and reduce the missiles aimed at Taiwan.

There's certainly room for straight talk and firmness in U.S. diplomacy. Bush's clarity could inspire sounder policy. To keep the tough talk constructive, though, Bush will need perfect pitch. Some may dismiss his verbal "realism" as the bluster of a green President who wants to puff up his toughness and resolve. Others may see the candor as a sign of overt hostility--and simply stop listening. Bashing Russia fuels anti-American forces in Russian society. Isolating North Korea doesn't reduce its threatening missiles. The Aegis could hurt rather than help Taiwan's security. How, asks Brookings Institution senior fellow Ivo Daalder, will Washington get competitors to "work with us when we're poking them in the eye"? Bush may find that tough talk is not all there is to smart diplomacy.