When History Turns A Corner

SANA / AP
WITHDRAWAL: Syrian President Assad meets with Qatari Prince Sheikh Hamad Bin Khlifa Al thani to discuss withdrawing troops from Lebanon

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Egypt
Criticism of Hosni Mubarak is still dangerous in Egypt: the one newspaper that dared publish an open attack on the country's leader was shut down a few years ago. But with the world around him changing, Mubarak is too shrewd a politician not to perceive the dangers in resisting the tide of reform. No one is sure exactly what moved the autocratic Mubarak to permit multiparty presidential elections instead of the rubber-stamp referendums that have given him four six-year terms in office. But after the government arrested liberal party head Ayman Nour last month on charges of fraud, the international reaction was unmistakable: U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice canceled a planned visit to Cairo. If her message was clear, so was the advantage to Mubarak of opening up Egypt's system just enough to ease international and domestic pressure. "We are still shocked," said Hesham Kassem, a pro-democracy activist, though no one in Egypt doubts that Mubarak will be elected to a fifth term. Indeed, his move caught opposition parties off guard, and some admitted they may not get organized in time to mount an effective response. To that, Mubarak replied, "They say they are not ready, but someone has to run."

The Palestinian Territories
The surprise was not that Palestinians held a successful election. The death of Yasser Arafat in November fundamentally altered the character of their politics. Tired of the Old Man's corruption and violence, a sizable majority of Palestinians chose to replace him with a man known for moderation and willingness to parley with Israel. Even more important, Israel and the U.S., which had ostracized Arafat for two years, were willing to deal with him.

The key question is, What does Mahmoud Abbas do now that he has won?

Last month, Abbas put life into the peace process by firing his security chiefs in the Gaza Strip, who had long failed to quell violence launched from there. His new Interior Minister, General Nasser Youssef, last week replaced all Arafat's top security officers in the unruly West Bank city of Jenin. A source close to Youssef told TIME that he intends to do the same across the West Banka step vital in convincing the U.S. and Israel that Arafat's tactic of periodically arresting terrorists and then unleashing them on Israel is over. As Youssef told security offices in Jenin, "We want one government, one system and one gun." Abbas still wants to persuade terrorist groups operating in the territories to run in parliamentary elections scheduled for July. For the first time in years, though, groups like Hamas, which won a strong showing in the balloting in Gaza, have to think seriously about joining the political process or face a serious challenge from Palestinian authorities as well as Israel. Abbas believes that once Hamas is in the parliament, it will have less incentive to indulge in violence against Israel.

Of course, there's a distinction between holding elections and erecting stable democracies. The U.S. labored for years to hold elections in Haiti, only to see the country dissolve into chaos.

Lebanon without Syria could prove a violent place where militant groups like Hizballah fill any power vacuum. "If our test with these countries is, they have elections, and we're happy," says a top Democratic aide in Congress, "we're in for a bigger problem than we've solved."

For now, though, Bush and Rice will brook no discussion of slowing down or making compromises in their drive to inspire a democratic Middle East. During her recent swing through Europe, Rice was asked by a German opinion leader whether Arabs are ready to handle democracy. The question pushed every one of the Secretary's buttons.

"When the Founding Fathers said, 'We the People,'" Rice replied, "They didn't mean me." That's stirring stuff, but it will take all that and more before the Middle East turns enough corners so that there's no turning back.