Zap! - TIME

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Most important: given time, falling interest rates almost always work, and with inflation low the Fed has room to cut away. Why isn't the stock market responding now? "In the early innings of a weak economy there's always a battle between lower interest rates and falling corporate profits, and falling corporate profits always win," says Richard Bernstein, strategist at Merrill Lynch. In that respect, he says, there's nothing unusual about what's happening. Investors are focused on the bad news. Eventually, though, falling rates breathe life into an ailing economy--and into the stock market well in advance.

Since 1921, in 13 cases in which rates were cut swiftly three times in a row, the Dow has been higher one year after the third cut on 12 occasions. A cut this week would be the third this go-round. The median gain in the 13 cases was 25%, according to Ned Davis Research. The NASDAQ, which came into being in 1971, has never been negative a year after a third consecutive rate cut, and its gains have also been impressive.

Stats like that give bullish analysts plenty to talk about. "The economy will be picking up significantly by the fourth quarter," says Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch. "Corporate earnings should be picking up at the same time, and the stock market, because it looks to the future, is going to be going up well in advance of that. I really think sometime in the spring the market will turn around."

As for comparing the U.S. economy with the downwardly spiraling Japanese economy, analysts note a host of differences. The main one: the Japan bubble was built on rising real estate values. Banks were heavily exposed through mortgages and commercial-property loans. The U.S. bubble was in a narrow sector of stocks. Some banks are exposed through private equity investments; but for the most part, even if your portfolio tanked, your bank doesn't have much at risk. Healthy banks are vital to a healthy economy.

Macro issues aside, many stocks now trade at bargain prices. Sell now and you risk selling at the bottom. Ironically, a lot of tech stocks now trade higher relative to this year's earnings than they did even before the slide. So they still look expensive. But that's because near term earnings assumptions are falling faster than the stock price. If the earnings slump is temporary, as it most likely will be for blue-chip firms like Intel and Microsoft, the near term outlook should be ignored if you are a long-term investor. A better metric is the expected five-year growth rate.

At times like these it can be hard to hang on to your stocks. No one knows if they will go lower before they rebound. But if you sell now for any reason other than to diversify, you probably shouldn't be in stocks in the first place. They work their magic only over long periods of time.

Chat with Dan Kadlec about the future of the economy on AOL at 7 p.m. E.T. on 3/21. Keyword: Live