Could It Happen Here? You Bet

A tsunami striking the U.S. is not a question of if, but when

By J. Madeleine Nash Monday, Jan. 10, 2005
    • NAT FARBMAN / TIME LIFE PICTURES / GETTY

    PILEUP Crescent City, Calif., in the aftermath of the tsunami of 1964

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    Fortunately, tsunamis take time to travel, which can give populations in harm's way anywhere from a few minutes to many hours to flee. For this reason, 26 countries have banded together to establish a tsunami-warning system for the Pacific (though not for the Atlantic Ocean or, alas, the tsunami-ravaged Indian Ocean). As presently configured, it's far from perfect, producing a 75% rate of false alarms. But that should change with the deployment of a new generation of detectors that can be positioned deep underwater, away from surface chop. In November 2003, a trial run of the system determined that a tsunami unleashed by an Alaskan earthquake would be too small to do any damage when it reached Hawaii, thereby avoiding an unnecessary and costly coastal evacuation like the one caused by a false alarm eight years earlier. After last week's disaster, however, few are likely to ignore the tsunami sirens the next time they sound. --By J. Madeleine Nash

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