Chinese Kremlinology: Will Jiang Go?

Just four months ago Hu Jintao toured Washington as Chinese leader Jiang Zemin's heir apparent, and it seemed China was preparing for the first smooth political succession in its modern history. But reports have swirled in the months since then that Jiang--once expected to cede his post as Communist Party chief to Hu at the party's congress in November--will instead cling to power, holding on to the party position, as well as that of military chief. Over the summer, Jiang's staff organized a petition campaign in the provinces to get him to stay; suddenly a spate of pro-Jiang stories appeared in...

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