Forecast: Calling the Bottom

Looking past the recession, TIME's Board of Economists sees a recovery next year--and stocks rising sooner

The brave souls who try to forecast the U.S. economy spend much of their time looking backward for data and precedents. So when TIME's Board of Economists gathered in New York City, its members referred often to the last time the nation was steeling itself for war: 1990-91, between the invasion of Kuwait and Operation Desert Storm. Back then, a relatively quick military victory helped spark the longest economic expansion in U.S. history. In today's protracted campaign against terrorism, few expect a decisive win that could trigger a quick rebound.

But in many ways, our panelists agree, the economy is healthier...

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