A fisherman sails on the ice fjord of Ilulissat, Greenland
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But the truth may be that Obama doesn't have much scope for substance, because he is to some extent a prisoner of Congress. The White House doesn't want to repeat the mistake made by former President Bill Clinton with the Kyoto Protocol by agreeing internationally to emissions cuts that have no support at home. That means Obama has to wait for Congress to act — and although the House passed a carbon cap in June, there's little chance of the Senate acting on the bill before the end of the year. That leaves Obama — and global climate negotiations — at the mercy of U.S. lawmakers. "We want a comprehensive package, and we're doing everything we can to make that happen," said Obama's climate-change czar Carol Browner. But right now the ball is in Congress's court.
China and Japan: The New Green Team
If the U.S. is half of the solution to Copenhagen, then China — now the world's top carbon emitter — is the other half. Massively polluting, building a couple of coal-fired power plants every week, China is a convenient scapegoat for American politicians who don't want to make the first move on climate change. But as Hu made clear in his Sept. 22 speech, China is serious about confronting climate change. The country spent an estimated $221 billion in economic stimulus on green initiatives, more than any other nation. At the U.N., in addition to promising to raise its renewable energy share to 15% by 2020, Hu pledged that China would cut its carbon emissions by a "notable margin" by 2020. "Out of a sense of responsibility to its own people and people across the world, China has taken and will continue to take determined and practical steps to tackle this challenge," he said.
Meanwhile, China's neighbor Japan came out with the most aggressive carbon-emission cuts in the world. Japan's new Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, pledged to reduce Japan's carbon emissions 25% below 1990 levels by 2020. Although European nations have long promised to cut their own emissions by 20% and potentially more, Japan is the most energy-efficient large economy in the world, and is poised to become a living laboratory for fighting climate change. "I am resolved to exercise the political will to deliver on this promise," said Hatoyama, whose party in recent elections overthrew the Liberal Democratic Party that has run Japan for decades.
Indeed, leadership on climate change may be shifting to the East. Hu emphasized that China's economic policies would continue to promote the country's rapid development, and it isn't clear just how ambitious China's emissions cuts will be. As Todd Stern, the U.S.'s top climate diplomat, told reporters on Tuesday: "It all depends on what the numbers will be." But from the outside, it looks like China is forging ahead while the U.S. remains mired in domestic politics. "The question is whether [China] will prompt Obama and the Senate into action before Copenhagen," says Annie Petsonk, international counsel for the Environmental Defense Fund.
Business: Moving Ahead
Big business is often characterized by many climate-change activists as the bad guy. But while politicians, especially those in the U.S., have been slow to grapple with global warming, many corporations have been moving ahead on their own. They're cutting carbon emissions at rates higher than any government and improving energy efficiency for the sake of their own profits. "Businesses need to deal with climate change, and they need regulatory certainty and simplicity from governments," says Charles Holliday, the chairman of DuPont.
Holliday was one of a number of CEOs who came to the U.N. on Sept. 22 to mingle with world leaders and press them on climate change. Meanwhile the International Air Transport Association reiterated a pledge to cut its own carbon emissions in half by 2050 over 2005 levels. For airlines, like other businesses, the realities of climate change can't be ignored — a world where resources are scarcer and temperatures are rising will demand other ways of doing business, or companies will go out of business. "We all should realize that carbon has a cost," says Jeffrey Swartz, CEO of the shoe company Timberland.
Copenhagen: Still in Doubt
Despite signs of progress at U.N., the prospects for success at Copenhagen are still cloudy. How poor countries should be aided in adapting to climate change, how to prevent tropical deforestation and especially what level of emissions cuts developed nations will agree to are all issues that have yet to be resolved. "I'm getting mixed signals," says Kandeh Yumkella, director-general of the U.N. Industrial Development Organization, who was backstage lobbying politicians at the summit.
The one undoubted benefit of the U.N. meeting is that it put climate change back in the headlines, at least for a day. Between the recession, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, the problems with Iran — even the fact that it hasn't been a dramatically warm year for much of the world — climate change had dropped somewhat on the international agenda. That will always be a risk for this most long-term of challenges, where the penalties and payoffs of policy changes will unfold over decades. "The true test of leadership is to take the long view," Ban said.
In fact, leaders have had no problem taking the long view on climate change; G-8 nations have agreed to reduce global emissions 50% by 2050. But as India's Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh told reporters, "It's the height of dishonesty to have a target for 2050 because none of us will be around to be held accountable." What the world really needs is for its leaders to think short term, to make the hard pledges that are required to start bringing global carbon emissions down. They can start at Copenhagen. And they should remember the words of Mohamed Nasheed, the President of the Maldives, whose small island country literally risks being erased from the planet by rising sea levels. "We are talking about not living because of climate change," he said on Sept. 21. "We are going to die. Don't do this to us." Not as eloquent as Obama's words — but far more urgent.