Playing Climate Change Catch-Up

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Jen Chase / Colorado State Forest Service / AP

Even the most uninformed student of climate change could tell you that the solution to global warming is to mitigate global greenhouse gas emissions, and fast. But the political difficulties of mitigation aside (the first major federal cap-and-trade legislation will be up soon in the Senate, and isn't expected to pass), the problem is that the sheer amount of greenhouse gases we've already pumped into the atmosphere has irreversibly bound us to a certain amount of warming over the next several decades — no matter what we do, we'll have to adapt to it.

That means climate change isn't a problem for tomorrow; the effects are happening now. Already precipitation patterns seem to be changing, making some drier areas — like the arid American southwest — even drier, and rainy regions even wetter. (Which can be almost as destructive as a drought — last year's record-breaking floods in Britain caused $4 billion worth of damage.) As warmer temperatures creep northward, so do insects and other pests that are adapted to the heat. The results can be harrowing — the population of the tiny mountain pine beetle, which infests pine trees in the Rocky Mountain region, used to be controlled by freezing winters. But as temperatures have warmed over the past decade, the mountain pine beetle's territory has spread, destroying millions of acres of Canadian pines.

Imagine what's to come. The pine beetle infestation is just one example of global warming's present danger. It also represents the unique challenges that warming will pose for land conservation managers on the front lines of the battle against it. Generations of American conservationists have fought to preserve wildlife and to keep nature pristine in the face of a growing population and pollution. To a remarkable extent, they've succeeded — almost 16% of the entire landmass of the U.S. is protected, and the Endangered Species Act has helped save countless animals from extinction. But global warming threatens to change all that, by altering the very foundation on which the conservation movement was built. What good is a wildlife reserve if the protected animals can't live there, because climate change pushes them out? What difference does it make to defend trees from logging, if global warming will allow a new pest to ravage whole forests?

The answer is to adapt the way we practice wildlife and land conservation to climate change. There's a term for this — adaptive management — and last week the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, a Cambridge-based think tank, brought together conservation leaders from around the U.S. to discuss how to cope with warming. Led by James Levitt, the director of the program on conservation innovation at Harvard Forest, dozens of executives from groups like the National Wildlife Federation and the Nature Conservancy, along with a few representatives from the government, tried to work out a new framework for the biggest challenge facing conservation. (Listen to Levitt talk about adaptive management on this week's Greencast.)

The conference was fruitful, if a bit depressing. What's clear is that the sheer speed of the changes already taking place due to warming — like the mountain pine beetle infestation — are catching us off guard. So too is the scale required to properly adapt to climate change, which will almost certainly continue for decades into the future. Conservationists are used to planning five, 10, maybe 15 years ahead, but we need to begin making moves today to adapt to changes that warming will bring decades hence. "Climate change will affect agriculture, water resources, forestry, transportation, waste management, energy generation, national security, immigration patterns, fisheries, food security, you name it," said Lara Hansen of EcoAdapt. "We need to change the way we allocate resources, plan economies and protect livelihoods."

That means that the way we've been carrying out conservation — picking the right land spaces and playing goalie — won't work anymore, as climate change keeps moving the target. There are no perfect answers, but what we know is that conservationists will have to work even harder, trying to minimize non climate-related threats to land and species even as the human population grows by billions. All are agreed that the conservation movement of the future will need to be as inter-connected as the Earth's climate itself, because in a crowded, warmer world there will be no islands. Regardless of what we do, the changes will be coming fast — a report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on May 27 said that global warming was already having "profound effects" in the American West, and that the future would bring increased drought, heat waves, rainstorms, extinctions and more. We need to begin cutting our carbon immediately, but we need to adapt now as well. The world is changing because of us; to save what's left, we'll have to change too.