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"We believe that the next five years will be one of the most attractive real estate investment periods in the past 50 years," says Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD), an affiliate of closely-held Starwood Capital Group, in its July 29 IPO filing. The company, which is headed by real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht and went public last week, believes real estate became "significantly overpriced" in the go-go years of the past decade, and that "a significant price correction" is under way.
And there will be plenty to buy. "There's probably a lot of financial institutions that hold mortgage debt today that just can't hold it long-term and will eventually have to be sellers, whether it's regional banks or major financial institutions that need to deleverage," says Greg Ressa, a partner and head of real estate at Simpson Thacher & Bartlett LLP.
However, the strategy isn't without risk.
First, if a tsunami of private-equity players and REITs jump into the sector, competition for assets will heat up, which could drive prices up. If this happens, potential profits will shrink, says Tom Fink, senior vice president of Trepp LLC, a commercial-mortgage-research firm.
Second, pricing the asset right is tricky. If real estate fundamentals continue to deteriorate over an extended period of time, more loans will go into default and the value of the mortgage securities will decline further. This could cause problems for entities that overpay. "If you buy a mortgage at 60 cents on the dollar, it's only a good deal if the underlying values come back," says Ressa.
Third, there's no guarantee that financial entities will be willing to sell assets at fire-sale prices. With the federal government and Federal Reserve offering bailouts, many don't have guns pointed at their heads forcing them to pull the trigger on distressed assets.
So far, investors have been cautious on the group, giving only lukewarm receptions to four entities that recently went public in the sector: PennyMac raised only $335 million in its IPO — less than half of the $750 million it had expected — and its stock fell below its opening price after trading began; Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. (IVR) raised $170 million; and Cypress Sharpridge Investments (CYS) grabbed $100 million. Starwood fared better, raising $810 million — the second largest IPO this year — but its share price also slipped below its IPO price the first day.
Investors may be jittery, having watched a number of mortgage REITs, such as New Century Financial Corp. and American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection over the past couple of years, and others, such as Arbor Realty Trust and Gramercy Capital, struggling to stay afloat. Even Starwood's newest offering could stir concerns if investors check out the sour performance of one of Sternlicht's previous specialty finance companies, iStar Financial (SFI).
Still, at least seven more IPOs are in the pipeline, including offerings from Colony Capital, Apollo, Alliance Bernstein, Bayview Asset Management (which is partly owned by Blackstone Group), Ellington Management Group, Western Asset Management and AG Financial Investment Trust.
"Not all of these offerings will get done," predicts Marks at Fitch Ratings. "A lot of them have similar business plans ... It comes down to the strength of the management team."