Eighteen months ago, when the world was awash in asset bubbles, there was perhaps no market more overheated than commodities. Prices of everything from iron ore to palm oil to corn reached dizzying heights. Crude oil nearly quintupled in five years; rice tripled in only five months. World Bank President Robert Zoellick called rising food and oil prices a "man-made catastrophe" that had the potential to quickly erase years of progress in overcoming poverty. Protests and riots over high prices for necessities erupted across the developing world. Pundits dusted off Malthusian theories that the planet was physically unable to support the burgeoning appetites of an increasingly wealthy global population.
What a difference a financial crisis makes. After the worldwide economic boom went bust, demand abruptly evaporated for many commodities that go into the production of houses, cars, computers, and all kinds of durable goods. The Dow Jones-AIG commodity price index has shed more than half its value since mid-2008. Due to falling metal prices, BHP Billiton in January announced the mothballing of an Australian nickel mine only eight months after it officially opened. The most visible turnaround has been in oil. A year ago, Western governments were pleading with Persian Gulf oil states to ramp up production as oil sped toward $150 a barrel; today, OPEC is twisting off the spigot in an attempt to support crude prices around $50. The International Energy Agency expects oil demand to fall this year at the steepest rate since the early 1980s. Some experts believe prices may stay depressed for years to come, due to greater energy efficiency, technological improvements in oil production and greater availability of alternative fuels such as biofuels. (Read a brief history of the oil barrel.)
But over the last several months, something funny has been happening in the commodities trade. After spectacular plunges, the prices of oil, copper, palm oil and others are rallying. This shouldn't be happening given the parlous state of the world economy. The International Monetary Fund this week cut its global growth forecast for 2009, predicting GDP would contract by 1.3%, the most severe recession since the 1930s. Yet oil is some 50% more expensive now than in December. Palm oil, which is used in a wide variety of manufactured foods, has surged by about 50% this year. "The only area of the world economy I know of where the fundamentals are improving are commodities," says investment guru Jim Rogers. "The fundamentals for General Motors are not improving. The fundamentals for Citibank are not improving. The fundamentals for cotton are improving."
But why are prices rising for some commodities now, in the middle of the worst recession in decades? The answer: demand is recovering, slightly, for some raw materials. In the case of oil, supplies have been reduced by OPEC cutbacks. And commodities traders are bidding up market prices in general on expectations that supply shortages will return with just a modest improvement in demand.
That's because miners, farmers and oil drillers, hit by the credit crunch, can't finance investments that would increase their production capacity. Many won't invest today even if they have access to financing because depressed prices make projects uneconomic. Indeed, when prices spiked sharply in 2007-08, it wasn't because the planet was running out of natural resources. The problem was that there hadn't been enough investment in many sectors to produce those resources and bring them to market. The recession is making that situation worse. The amount of investment in the oil sector, for example, will likely be 30% lower in 2009 and at least 40% less in 2010 than was expected before the financial crisis, according to Merrill Lynch. In mining, investment could be 40% lower in 2009-10.
Since new oilfields and copper mines take years to get into full production, lower investment today causes tighter supply down the road. At the same time, there is every reason to believe that emerging markets such as China and India will continue to be ever more voracious consumers of iron ore, oil and food as their economies get bigger and their citizens richer. Palm oil prices, for example, have been rising of late partly because demand from India, with its population of 1 billion, is holding up. In March, China imported a record amount of iron ore and coal, while imports of crude oil hit a 12-month high. The binge is being fueled in part by optimism that Beijing's $565 billion stimulus program will drive a turnaround in the sagging economy. "After a brief pause, China's appetite for natural resources has returned to buoyant levels," Jing Ulrich, chairman of China equities at J.P. Morgan in Hong Kong, wrote in a report this month.
Of course, different types of commodities will react differently as the global economy improves, based on their own specific supply and demand conditions. This makes timing a turnaround complicated. Rogers says he expects commodities prices to be among the first to rise, out of all asset classes, when economic growth begins to return. Other experts argue against a rapid rebound, because inventories are high for commodities such as oil, and because demand for natural resources has been so thoroughly squelched in some industries that it may not fully recover anytime soon. Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research for Merrill Lynch in London, says he doesn't expect overall demand will return to 2007 levels until 2011 at the earliest. "Over a number of years we will get back to supply constraints," says Blanch, but "it won't happen over the next six to 12 months."
Still, bullish investors see little downside in commodities, although returns may not come overnight. Some consider commodities a hedge against another looming threat: inflation. If loose monetary policies implemented by central banks around the world to stimulate growth eventually spark inflation, commodity prices might escalate rapidly. "If the world economy is going to improve, commodities are going to be the best place to be," asserts Rogers. "If the world economy doesn't improve, commodities are going to be the best place to be." Anyone for a truckload of soybeans?
With reporting by Tim Morrison / New York