The Cable Guys

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Will the deal happen? Assets have a way of ending up with whoever can extract the most value, and Comcast has efficiency on its side. AT&T's cable operations have been floundering, with industry-trailing profit margins of 16%. Comcast, by contrast, runs on 42% margins. If Comcast could bring AT&T's $8 billion-a-year cable operations up to similarly stratospheric margins, it could squeeze out an additional $2.6 billion in operating profits annually. But even Brian Roberts admits that may not be easy--or possible--and has set Comcast's sights on squeezing about half of those savings. (The AT&T cable properties include a 25% stake in Time Warner Entertainment, a division of AOL Time Warner.)

Not that AT&T wants to sell. Embattled CEO Michael Armstrong, Ma Bell's would-be savior, has watched the stock plummet 41% over the past year. And he has bet heavily on cable, which figured to be central to Armstrong's grand strategy of making AT&T a vertically integrated media company that could deliver telecom, Internet, cable and wireless services seamlessly. Now he is pulling those seams apart by dividing Ma Bell into four sectors. He is said to want to take over the cable unit himself if it is sold to the public in an ipo as planned.

He might not get the chance. If AT&T's big investors think Comcast offers value, they may pressure the board to take the deal. With Comcast, shareholders would get not just cash but also two of the canniest managers in the business. It's hard to argue with industry-topping profit margins. And in an age when communications technology is changing at the speed of light, it may be the wrong time to bet against the family that knew just when to get out of belts and cuff links.