The Oscars: "Chicago" Is Chic

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This time, the Spaniards didn't select Almodvar's "Talk to Her," which many critics and moviegoers thought the best film from any country; so it's not eligible. The superb Palestinian comedy-drama "Divine Intervention" couldn't be nominated because, by the Academy's lights, Palestine is not a country. And in place of some truly audacious, effulgently cinematic works like the Indian "Devdas" and the Russian "Russian Ark," the Oscar committee chose a pedestrian Mexican story of priestly passion and a WWII-Jews-on-the-run-to-Kenya drama — sort of "Out of Africa" with a briss. (It's a Roger Ebert fave.)

Two fine films did make the list: Zhang Yimou's "Crouching Tiger" gonna-be "Hero," which Miramax will open late this year' and Aki Kaurismaki's "Man Without a Past," which won the Grand Jury and Best Actress prizes at Cannes last year. Neither of these films is a lock to win, since the voting procedure in the Academy's final round is as byzantine and exclusive as everything else in this mismanaged category. But I rant.

HOPE: "Hero"
THINK: "The Crime of Father Amaro"

BEST FILM

"Chicago"
"Gangs of New York"
"The Hours"
"The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers"
"The Pianist"

"Two Towers" may already have outgrossed "The Fellowship of the Ring" at the domestic box office, but it won fewer than half the nominations of its predecessor (six to 13); the Academy may be waiting to bestow its ultimate prize on the concluding episode, due out in December. "The Hours" is the ultimate glum-woman's movie, but it strews too many self-inflicted corpses for the climactic uplift usually required of the top Oscar-winner. "The Pianist" is possible, in part because it's surprisingly lively and ambiguous for its subject, and because Hollywood likes Holocaust movies where the hero survives. Miramax should be happy that "Gangs" won 10 nominations; audiences may finally be encouraged to see the film. That'll be nice, but it won't win Oscar's grand prize.

Have I just eliminated all films but "Chicago"? It's the one relentlessly vital film of the five; it may find Academy members looking for something light, as they did in 1999 when "Shakespeare in Love" beat out "Saving Private Ryan"; and it's been touted as having the big mo. But that steam could evaporate in the next five weeks. And a lot of the buzz for "Chicago" may be a wish that Hollywood could get serious about reviving a grand old genre. And that, I say and sing to you, will never happen.

"The Pianist" has already roared out of nowhere (though it did win at Cannes last year) to boot "About Schmidt" from an expected Best Picture nomination slot. Polanski's semi-memoir could keep chugging. So, just for piquancy, I'll go out on a limb — or, rather, take a walk in the Warsaw Ghetto.

HOPE: "Gangs of New York"
THINK: "The Pianist"

BEST DIRECTOR

Pedro Almodvar, "Talk to Her"
Stephen Daldry, "The Hours"
Rob Marshall, "Chicago"
Roman Polanski, "The Pianist"
Martin Scorsese, "Gangs of New York"

It's Marty's turn, we hear. Since Scorsese has never won an Oscar, and seeing as he was not even nominated for directing "Mean Streets," "Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore" or "Taxi Driver," he is, at 60, perhaps overdue for a pity-vote — not that "Gangs" is not also a beautifully directed movie. Almodvar, 51, somehow keeps topping himself: "Talk to Her" has the emotional depth of "All About My Mother" and a defiant buoyancy besides. Both Marshall and Daldry are 42; Marshall is the comer, and "Chicago" the favorite. Polanski is the grand old gnome, 70 this year, a survivor like his pianist. He won't be attending the Oscars — or if he does, it'll be in handcuffs, since he is wanted on a 25-year-old statutory rape conviction. He could be the most famous no-show directorial nominee since Woody Allen.

HOPE: Scorsese
THINK: Scorsese