East Timor is a nation of some 800,000 inhabitants located on a small island on the southeastern tip of the Indonesian archipelago, 400 miles north of Australia. The western half of the island had been a Dutch colony, and was therefore part of what became independent Indonesia after World War II. But the eastern half, which had been ruled for three centuries by Portugal, was given its independence with the collapse of the Portuguese empire in 1975. Indonesia invaded the country in December of that year and annexed East Timor in 1976.
What's behind the current violence?
The Timorese have bitterly resisted the Indonesian invasion over the past 24 years, and the territory was never fully pacified. Timorese such as guerrilla leader Xanana Gusmao and 1996 Nobel Peace Prize winners Jose Ramos Horta and Bishop Carlos Belo have fought for independence throughout Indonesia's occupation. Indonesia is estimated to have killed as many as 100,000 Timorese in its failed attempts to colonize East Timor.
In January of this year, Indonesia's new president, B. J. Habibie, attempted to boost his international credibility by offering East Timor a referendum on its status. In the August poll, 78 percent of the electorate chose independence, but pro-Indonesia militias backed by Indonesian military officers then launched a reign of terror against the pro-independence majority.
Is Indonesia the cure or the cause of East Timor's turmoil?
While the Indonesian government professes neutrality and vows that it will restore order in the territory, even its foreign minister has been forced to admit that what he called "rogue elements" of the Indonesian army are directly involved in the violence. The anti-independence militias are widely believed to have been organized, armed and in some cases even directed by members of the Indonesian military, and Indonesian troops have done nothing to restrain the militias' rampage.
President Habibie's aides have also acknowledged that he is under intense internal pressure from forces opposed to letting go of East Timor. Those range from the former dictator Suharto and opposition leader Megawati Sukarnoputri to the country's all-powerful military. The military has extensive economic interests in East Timor, and the officer corps fears that allowing the territory to break away will only encourage secessionist movements across the 13,000 ethnically diverse islands that make up Indonesia.
East Timor may also have become the battleground that will settle the struggle for power in Indonesia itself. The crisis has shown the limits of civilian authority in Jakarta not only is President Habibie being ignored by his armed forces, but they actually forced him to reluctantly declare martial law in the territory after the referendum result was announced. Some analysts believe that East Timor may also have become caught in the crossfire of a struggle for power between different factions within the Indonesian military itself.
What is U.S. policy on East Timor?
The U.S. had tacitly supported Indonesia's 1975 invasion of East Timor because Indonesia was its key southeast Asian ally during the Cold War. Over the next decade, Washington routinely voted against U.N. resolutions recognizing East Timor's independence and urging Indonesia's withdrawal. With Cold War concerns a thing of the past, however, the U.S. now wants Indonesia to respect the will of East Timor's people as expressed democratically through August's referendum. But Indonesia's economic and political centrality to the region, and its potential instability, make Washington cautious about applying pressure on Jakarta over East Timor.
Will East Timor get an international peacekeeping force, and which countries would send troops?
Indonesia's failure to keep its commitment to ensure security in East Timor has raised the clamor for an international peacekeeping force to replace Indonesian troops. Jakarta has thus far resisted the idea, at least until the Indonesian parliament recognizes East Timor's independence which will take at least a month, and is far from a done deal. Nobody is advocating that peacekeepers fight their way in, which means that right now the international community is raising pressure on Indonesia to accept such a force. Australia would take the lead in any peacekeeping operation, and already has 4,500 troops on alert. Most of the remainder of the mission would likely come from within the region Washington has made clear that the U.S. may consider offering logistical support, but no troops.
Newsfile: East Timor