The Streets May Be Quiet, but Iran's Democracy Battle Continues

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On the other hand, Khatami and his supporters operate meticulously within the law and political system created in 1979, fearing the power of the conservative backlash that transgression would occasion. When the conservative authorities banned further street demonstrations, Khatami dutifully fell in line and condemned any attempt to break the law and create social upheaval. In fact, five days earlier, it was Khameini who had been forced to condemn some of his most ardent supporters, who had mounted a bloody raid on protesters at a Tehran University dormitory. Both sides, then, recognize the need to maintain a balance. And despite the disappointment of many democracy-minded students over Khatamis condemnation, he and the students continue to share the same goals. "Irans students are not trying to overthrow Khatamis government," says Dowell. "Theyre trying to spur on its reform program and defend it from conservative attack."

Khatami had squeezed through the conservative-controlled vetting process despite making no secret of his commitment to building a more open civil society in Iran, widening democracy, entrenching the rule of law and normalizing Irans relations with the international community. After all, he is a cleric and a veteran of the revolution, and is able to articulate his aims as consistent with its original goals. But his landslide victory was a repudiation of Khameinis hard-line policies, and the conservatives immediately launched a counterattack, arresting key supporters on corruption charges, attacking liberal theologians and closing down reformist newspapers. More ominously, scores of liberal writers and intellectuals have been assassinated by shadowy groups, some of whom were traced back the Intelligence Ministry. The political infighting has intensified in the prelude to next years election. Observers believe the sudden arrest of 13 Iranian Jews last month on charges of spying for Israel was a conservative attempt to paint Khatami into a difficult corner, while the ban on the liberal newspaper Salam, which sparked off the unprecedented six-day protest movement, was part of the mullahs plan to stack the electoral deck in their own favor.

At the same time, however, the conservatives recognize the importance of transforming Irans image in the international community. In a sermon at Tehran University on Friday, former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani praised Iranians who had rallied behind the leadership during the street protests, but noted that the episode and had damaged Iran and called for stability. "[Instability] can be very damaging economically," he warned. "Foreign and domestic investment could decrease and Irans risk factor could rise." The very fact of a doyen of Irans Islamic revolution expressing concern over the countrys AAA rating signals a profound shift even the conservatives need Iran to make peace with the Arab world and the West. Irans oil revenues financed the Islamic revolution, and the long-term decline in world oil prices has left the country hurting economically. "Even the conservatives are agreed on the priority of opening up new markets and attracting investment," says Dowell. "And they know that despite their rhetoric, that means repairing relations with old foes." So despite the suppression of the protests, time and tide may be on Khatamis side.