Gnomeo, Owen and Unknown Lead a Weakened Box Office

A CBS News poll on the network's Sunday Morning show today revealed that 74% of American movie lovers prefer to watch films at home, only 20% in theaters. (And the other 6%... on planes? on a laptop while traveling? At summer screenings in a city park?) But only the smallest part of that 20% bothered to drag themselves to a movie this Oscar weekend.

With an Owen Wilson comedy and a Nicolas Cage action film as the big new attractions, the weekend's total box-office take (about $103 million) was lower than that of the same frame last year for the 13th time in 14 weeks. And that depleted audience includes film fanatics like TIME's Gilbert Cruz who spent yesterday at a 24-hour marathon of the 10 movies nominated for tonight's Best Picture's award. Whether it's the poor quality of new films, or the lack of an Avatar-size blockbuster, or snow fatigue in the East and Midwest, business is bad.

For the first two days of the weekend, the Farrelly brothers' comedy Hall Pass, starring Wilson and Saturday Night Live's Jason Sudekis, tallied $10.3 million at North American theaters. That figure is well ahead of the $9.5 million earned Friday and Saturday by the Disney-released animated feature Gnomeo & Juliet. But Disney is predicting a Sunday gross of $4.7 million for Gnomeo, while Warner Bros./New Line is forecasting just $3.1 million for Hall Pass. So today's headline is that — to use that waffling phrase, "according to early studio estimates" — Gnomeo is No. 1 with $14.2 million, and Hall Pass second with $13.4 million.

The final results will be in Monday, but either way Hollywood has nothing to cheer about. The same weekend last year, any of the top three films (Shutter Island in its second week, and the debuts of Cop Out and The Crazies) would have beaten Gnomeo's $14-plus million. And we shouldn't even mention that, when the Oscar show came a week later last year, Alice in Wonderland enjoyed a $116 million opening, on its way to a billion-dollar worldwide gross. Let that sink in: on Oscar weekend in 2010, a single film made more money than all films in theaters combined this weekend. And unless Rango — like Alice a weirdish animated fantasy starring Johnny Depp — is a bigger hit than we think it will be, there's no mega-blockbuster on the immediate horizon to lure the mass audience back to the 'plexes.

Whatever its actual opening-weekend finish, Hall Pass — about a guy whose wife gives him a week's leave to cheat on her with no recriminations — was supposed to do much better. Here's an R-rated comedy starring Wilson, the sweet-natured goofball who lured 'em in to Wedding Crashers and You, Me and Dupree, and directed by those madcap Farrelly brothers, box-office champs with their gross-out heart-warmers Dumb & Dumber, There's Something About Mary and Shallow Hal.

Thing is, those hits are antique; some of them date back to the last millennium. Since Shallow Hal in 2001, a Farrelly film hasn't grossed as much as $50 million at the domestic box office. Wilson's record, post-Dupree, has been just as feeble; no recent movie in which he was top-billed has reached even $40 million stateside. So Hall Pass is not a new low, just another low. And the audience for the brothers and their star is aging drastically: nearly half those who saw Hall Pass this weekend were over 35. That's an acceptable stat for Julie & Julia, not so for a raucous buddy movie.

That vacuum at the top allowed Gnomeo, on its third weekend, to slip into the lead, if "current estimates" hold. True Grit was another film to achieve No. 1 in its third week. And back in 1998, Something About Mary, which opened with about the same number as Hall Pass, finally became the box-office champ in its eighth week of release. The Farrellys shouldn't expect that eventual surge for their new movie. Its B-minus rating from CinemaScore's poll of exiting moviegoers suggests that, over the long haul, Hall Pass will pass not up but out.

Still, it was Gone With the Wind compared to Drive Angry, Cage's second action adventure in as many months, and his latest attempt to work his way out of the IRS doghouse. A revenge drama about a man who hunts the gang that killed his daughter and kidnapped his granddaughter, Drive Angry finished an abysmal ninth in its debut weekend, for one of the lowest openings a wide-release 3-D movie has endured. Cage must think this sort of plot is his ticket back to the limelight, since his next two projects (The Hungry Rabbit Jumps and Trespass) are also kidnap- or assault-revenge movies. Though he still has some international cred — last summer's Sorcerer's Apprentice, which flopped in North America, earned more than $150 million abroad — the shaggy, likable star hasn't had a hit since the 2007 National Treasure: Book of Secrets. He and the government must be hoping a National Treasure threequel is in the works.

In other action, Justin Bieber got a bounce with the release of the "Director's Fan Cut" of his concert film Never Say Never, to stick sixth place. Right behind it was The King's Speech, which lured the rest of the people who wanted to see the Best Picture frontrunner before the big show. This princely drama, made for a pauper's $15 million, has now earned $114.5 million in North America and more than $130 million abroad. It also keeps amassing statuettes. Yesterday at the Independent Spirit Awards, which honor American indies, The King's Speech won for Best Foreign Film. Black Swan took four prizes — Best Film, Director, Actress and Cinematography — while Best Actor went to James Franco, the co-host of the Oscar ceremony.

This is the one night when Hollywood wants everyone to watch TV. Starting tomorrow, though, the moguls are begging you to go see a movie. If the box-office slump continues, they'll be spiking their double frappuccinos with hemlock.

Here are the Sunday estimates of this weekend's top-grossing pictures in North American theaters, as reported by Box Office Mojo:

1. Gnomeo & Juliet, $14.2 million; $75.1 million, third week
2. Hall Pass, $13.4 million, first weekend
3. Unknown, $12.4 million; $42.8 million, second week
4. Just Go With It, $11.1 million; $79.4 million, third week
5. I Am Number Four, $11 million; $37.7 million, second week
6. Justin Bieber: Never Say Never, $9.2 million; $62.8 million, third week
7. The King's Speech, $7.6 million; $114.5 million, 14th week
8. Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son, $7.55 million; $28.6 million, second week
9. Drive Angry, $5.1 million, first weekend
10. The Roommate, $2.05 million; $35.9 million, fourth week